The Birth of a Nation: The Demography of East Timor

Thomas M McDevitt, U.S. Census Bureau
Peter Johnson, U.S. Census Bureau

The Birth of a Nation: The Demography of East Timor Thomas McDevitt and Peter Johnson, International Programs Center, Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau East Timor attained independence from Indonesia on May 20, 2002. This new nation's history under Portuguese rule from 1515 to 1975, its annexation by Indonesia in 1975, and its recent history of violence and displacement of population since the 1999 plebiscite on independence, has been widely covered in the media. East Timor's demographic profile and its demographic future are less well understood. Indeed, the demographic data base for East Timor is weak, and demographic estimates of size, growth, and the components of change vary from source to source. This paper reports on work undertaken in 2002 at the U.S. Census Bureau to establish demographic parameters and project the East Timorese population to 2050. The paper is in three parts: * The first part touches upon the quality of age-sex structure, fertility and mortality data available for East Timor. This review indicates weaknesses in the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) mortality data, which would otherwise be taken as a part of the cornerstone of the new nation's demographic profile. * The second part presents demographic estimates and projections to 2050 based on the 1990 census, the 1995 Intercensal Population Survey (SUPAS), and the 1994 and 1997 DHSs. This work was complicated not only by lack of data but also by distortions to underlying vital rates and age-sex structure associated with civil unrest for the decade which followed East Timor's 1976 annexation by Indonesia. * The third section of the paper highlights differences between U.S. Census Bureau estimates and projections for East Timor compared with those prepared by the United Nations. The cohort-component projection prepared for this paper indicate that East Timor's population will grow from about 746,000 persons in 1990 to over 1.9 million persons by 2050. Differences between this projection and that of the United Nations, as well as probable reasons for such differences, are also reported. * Fertility assumed here differs from the trend in the 1980s assumed by the United Nations in its most recent revision. Fertility for the period 1985-90 is higher than that assumed by the UN (5.39 vs. 5.21); for the 1980-85 period, lower (5.29 vs. 5.39). As a result, our projected population fits the 1995 SUPAS age distribution somewhat better than the UN projection does. The UN's projected population ages 0-4 and 5-9 in 1995 are actually smaller than the 1995 SUPAS sample estimates. This discrepancy at ages 0-4 suggests that the UN's fertility estimate for the 1985-90 period is too low or that the UN's assumed mortality is too high. * Mortality assumed by the United Nations is substantially higher than that assumed here (implied by indirect, child-survivorship estimates). The UN mortality also appears to account for the fact that the UN's projected age group 0-4 in 1995 is smaller than the figure reported in the 1995 SUPAS. * Our projections imply a midyear 2000 population substantially (about 90,000 persons) larger than that assumed by the United Nations in its most recent revision. This paper will emphasize graphics, which will include both analytical charts underscoring the rationale for assumptions made and charts showing projected events, rates, and population.