Application of Mortality Estimation Techniques to the 1999 Census of the Solomon Islands: Problems and a New Procedure

George Groenewold, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI)
Jeroen van Ginneken, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI)
Bart de Bruijn, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI)
Reuben Tovutovu, Ministry of Development Planning, Solomon Islands

Mortality-level estimates for Solomon Islanders derived from direct and indirect estimation methods seem far too optimistic and are irreconcilable with levels of fertility, migration, socio-economic development and health. This paper describes a new procedure that leads to more plausible estimates of mortality levels. First, a best-fitting model life-table is derived, through simulation, by projecting the age-distribution of the previous census to the date of the current census, using appropriate fertility and migration assumptions and the cohort component projection method. Second, time-series estimates of life expectancies at birth are examined of countries in the region with similar levels of development to estimate an average yearly change in life expectancy at birth. Third, results of previous steps are combined and a mathematical function is derived to estimate levels of mortality and concomitant model-life-tables in the Solomon Islands for each year in the intercensal period.