Fertility Studies in Context of Negative Natural Increase: An Analysis Based on the 2000 Census Data in Metropolitan Shanghai, China

Yuan Ren, Fudan University

Based on the new database of the 2000 population census of Shanghai in China, this research will take a quantitative study on those factors associate with fertility decreasing in context of a negative natural increase. This research was motivated by three questions: is the fertility decline a real decline or virtual decline? Is the fertility decline a forced decline or voluntary decline? Is the fertility decline a stable decline or unstable decline. The author will test whether changing in age structure, marriage patterns, urbanization process, education degree, internal migration, and other factors have positive or negative impact on population fertility with case study of Shanghai. Based on socioeconomic and institutional circumstance is changing, the author calls for reforms on the family planning policies in eastern coastal cities in China, and concludes some implications on maintaining low and stable fertility rate and advancing population and development in urban China.