Constructing Dynamic Scenarios for Forecasting Demographic Variables in Developing Countries

Salahudin S. Muhidin, Brown University

Most population forecasting in developing countries has traditionally assumed the changes of demographic variables’ levels (e.g. TFR and IMR), while the patterns are assumed to remain constant. The fact, Bongaarts (1999) reveals that fertility trends in many developing countries are likely to be distorted by changes in the timing of childbearing (the presence of tempo effect). The same feature has been applied to mortality and migration. The present study attempts to construct the dynamics of demographic patterns in population forecasting in developing countries, particularly on Indonesia as an example. The study focuses on the development of techniques in the context of developing countries to make optimal use of available data and to utilize different data sources. The utilization of these data is aimed at improving the baseline demographic parameters and the formulation of scenarios. The assumptions of future population are concentrated on the trends and patterns of demographic variables.