Childhood Mortality in Sub-Saharan African Countries: An Examination of the HIV Epidemic Impact

Yoonjoung Choi, Johns Hopkins University

The demographic impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa has been examined in a number of studies. Among other outcomes, the epidemic has been shown to affect childhood mortality, resulting in reduced rates of mortality reduction or even increases in some countries. However, HIV is only one among numerous factors that may affect levels of under 5 mortality. This paper presents results of a study investigating the associations between the HIV/AIDS epidemic and the trends and determinants of childhood mortality, using aggregate country-level data. Data come from the DHS and the UNAIDS HIV/AIDS Surveillance Data Base. A total of 54 DHS from 30 Sub-Saharan African countries are used, generating under 5 mortality rates in defined three-year periods. Independent variables corresponding to each period are used in order to control for three major characteristics - adult HIV prevalence, socio-economic development, and primary health care.