Population Aging and Population Decline

Victoria Velkoff, U.S. Census Bureau

Low fertility and improved health and longevity have generated growing numbers and proportions of older people throughout the world. The current level and pace of population aging varies, however, virtually all countries are experiencing growth in the number of older people. This growth poses challenges to social institutions which must adapt to changing age structures. The demographic aspects of population aging have been well documented. A second, less studied, result of trends in fertility and mortality is population decline. Over half of the developed countries, and some developing countries, are projected to experience population declines in the future. In developed countries, population declines are due to a combination of extremely low fertility and mortality. The developing countries that will experience population declines are typically experiencing increased mortality, usually related to HIV/AIDS. This paper will use US Census Bureau projections to examine the demographics of global population aging and population decline.