Historical Trends in the Determinants of Exiting and Entering Poor Neighborhoods

Kyle D. Crowder, Western Washington University
Scott J. South, University at Albany, State University of New York

This study uses thirty years of individual-level data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics merged with tract-level census data to analyze historical changes in the determinants of residential mobility between poor and nonpoor neighborhoods. Between 1968 and 1997, blacks became increasingly similar to whites in the rate at which they move from poor to nonpoor neighborhoods, but contrary to widely-accepted theory we find no evidence that this migration stream has become increasingly class-selective. Consistent with theoretical models of the gentrification process, high-income whites have become increasingly similar to blacks in the likelihood of moving from nonpoor to poor neighborhoods. Despite this convergence, blacks remain substantially less likely than whites to exit poor neighborhoods and substantially more likely than whites to enter them. We also find historical changes in the impact of metropolitan-level ecological conditions, most likely reflecting the growing concentration of poor people in poor neighborhoods.