Positive Outcomes from Poor Starts: Predictors of Dropping Back In

Christopher Jepsen, Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC)
Laura Hill, Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC)
Deborah S. Reed, Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC)

Positive Outcomes from Poor Starts: Predictors of Dropping Back In Christopher Jepsen, Laura E. Hill, and Deborah Reed Public Policy Institute of California The transition to adulthood is one of the more studied and least understood passages in life. Most research focuses on one racial or ethnic group and tackles one outcome, often a negative one. In this paper, we take a novel approach in which we allow the dynamic nature of adult development, with its many choices and consequences, to be revealed, and specifically explore variation in the pathways and outcomes across race, ethnicity and immigrant generation. We are particularly interested in understanding correlates of non-traditional pathways to successful outcomes. We explicitly acknowledge both risk-taking and conventional behaviors as a part of youth (Furstenberg 2000) and try to understand the role of each in the development of an adult. We will define “poor starts” to include teen parenthood (for young men and women, and occurring before the age of 18), being a high school dropout, participation in illicit activity such as gangs or drug use/sales, and idleness or gaps in education longer than two years. Successful outcomes will be measured at age 25 and include attending college, completing college, being permanently employed, having income and earnings above 200% of the poverty level, and having stable family lives. These categories are not mutually exclusive, nor are they exhaustive. Framed in this manner, this research allows for many definitions of a “successful” transition to adulthood, and explores the possibility that there are multiple routes to achieving success, many of which may begin inauspiciously. NELS:88 will be used to study the dynamic nature of the transition to adulthood. This longitudinal data set has three advantages for this paper. First, it follows individuals over time, from adolescence into early adulthood. Second, it provides detailed information on family background, school characteristics, aptitude test scores, grades, work, peer groups, risk taking behavior, early entry into parenthood, and other activities. Third, it has a relative large sample of racial and ethnic minorities. In the 2000 follow up, outcomes and behaviors for 800 Asians, 1300 Hispanics, 1000 blacks and 7400 whites were measured. While many scholars have argued that the transition to adulthood stretches beyond age 30, we will be limited here to age 25 by the NELS:88. Other data that follows youth for longer periods of time (e.g., NLSY79) is both too old to capture current conditions youth face and too old to capture the diverse population of youth that we now have in the United States. We will compare outcomes in the NELS88 with Census 2000 to validate the representativeness of the NELS:88 for subpopulations defined by race, ethnicity, and immigrant generation. The study will calculate probabilities of having successful outcomes after beginning with a poor start, describe the factors that appear to be correlated with positive outcomes, and simulate expected outcomes from changing those correlates which appear most affected by policy levers. The study will shed light on the following questions: How well do early steps predict ultimate outcomes? What are the pathways that ultimately do lead to success for those who have poor starts? What can be done to increase the proportion of those who ultimately have successful outcomes? Furstenberg, Frank F. (2000). “The Sociology of Adolescence and Youth in the 1990s: A Critical Commentary. Journal of Marriage and the Family, Vol. 62: 896-910.