A Dynamic System for Population Projections for Very Small Areas: Projecting for Districts and Neighborhoods in São Paulo/Brazil in 2005-2010

Paulo Jannuzzi, Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE)

Population projections for small areas are becoming more and more requested by public and private organizations around the world as a way to improve their planning capabilities. This paper presents an alternative method to produce population estimates in small areas, useful when good census data and vital statistics are available. The presented model is an integrated method of population projections using cohort-component method at regional level joined with a system of differential equations to split the total population to municipal, districts or neighborhood bounds. This dynamic system uses two demographic parametersfor each one of the very small area: one related to natural increase, one related to migratory attractiveness. The paper is structured in two sections. First it presents the integrated model demographic components-dynamic system, and later is shown an application to estimate the populations in the near future to 96 districts of Sao Paulo City.

Presented in Session 162: Population and Household Forecasting in Developing Countries