Spatial Configuration of Malaria Risk on the Amazon Frontier

Marcia C. De Castro, Princeton University

This paper seeks to identify the local determinants of malaria transmission on the Brazilian Amazon, considering social, economic, behavioral, and environmental issues, and accounting for the possible autocorrelation in the spatial distribution of malaria rates. The analysis is focused on the Machadinho settlement project, located in the Western part of the Amazon. Field surveys were realized in the area in 1985/87 and 1995. Additionally, key information was obtained through the application of GIS and Remote Sensing techniques. In order to analyze such complex and heterogeneous data, a three-step methodological approach is proposed, combining spatial statistical analysis, geostatistical tools, and grade of membership models (fuzzy sets). The findings from this study facilitated the proposal of a set of strategies that should be implemented in new and extant settlement projects, targeted in both time and space, to reduce the costs and improve the effectiveness of malaria control.