Long-Term Governmental Costs and Savings of HAART Therapy and Preventative HIV Interventions with Limited Government Budgets

Emiko Masaki, University of California, Berkeley
Russell A. Green, University of California, Berkeley

Recent price reductions for Antiretroviral (ARV) drugs have produced claims that universal access to ARV therapy creates savings by avoiding the cost of opportunistic infections. While most previous work has been restricted to short-term analysis, this research aims to investigate the long-term cost implications of ARV therapy and preventative HIV interventions. We present a simple dynamic cost analysis of various HIV interventions, explicitly tracking costs over the lifespan of affected individuals. We perform a long-term cost projection, using Kenya as a model for government budgetary constraints. The long-term cost projection allows comparison of multiple interventions through impacts on the progression of the HIV epidemic and future resource needs. Forecasting the costs and savings of multiple HIV interventions shows that the potential savings from ARV therapy are small. The long-term costs of ARV therapy raise questions about the feasibility and sustainability of universal access to ARV therapy under limited government budgets.