Do Fertility Preferences Influence Subsequent Fertility Behavior? Evidence from Northern Ghana

Cornelius Y. Debpuur, Navrongo Health Research Centre
Ayaga A. Bawah, Navrongo Health Research Centre

The link between stated fertility preferences and subsequent behavior is of considerable policy relevance. This has been one of the primary reasons for the inclusion of questions on reproductive preferences and intentions in the World Fertility Surveys and subsequently, the Demographic and Health Surveys, conducted in developing countries. The underlying assumption is that such preference and intention questions would yield data that can help provide meaningful clues regarding the direction of future fertility behavior. Research findings so far tend to suggest that fertility preferences and intentions are significant factors in explaining subsequent reproductive outcomes (see for instance Tan and Tey, 1994; De Silva, 1991; Bankole, 1995; Thomson, 1997). This paper explores the relationship between fertility intentions and subsequent behavior in a rural district of northern Ghana. The analysis is based on data from a cross-sectional survey carried out in 1998 as well as data from the Navrongo Demographic Surveillance System. As part of the research systems of the Navrongo Community Health and Family Planning project, annual panel surveys and a longitudinal demographic surveillance system were instituted 1993 to monitor changes in contraceptive knowledge, reproductive preferences, reproductive behavior and fertility. The survey data provide background information as well as fertility preference information on women, while the surveillance data provide information on births and other events occurring to these women since the time of the survey. Women who considered themselves infecund during the survey as well as those above 45 years are not included in the analysis. Our focus in this paper is on women’s stated desire for additional children and their subsequent fertility behavior. First, we examine the characteristics of women who desire to space their births in relation to those who desire to limit births. Next we examine the extent to which actual reproductive behavior during the period after the survey till December 2002 is consistent with the stated fertility preference in 1998. Finally, we explore the influence of a large scale community-based and family planning project (the Navrongo Community Health and Family Planning Project) in the relationship between fertility preferences and actual behavior.