Fertility Decline in the Former Communist Countries of the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe

Timothy Heleniak, World Bank Group

Since the breakup of the Soviet Union, Yugoslavia, and Czechoslovakia, the liberalization of society, and the start of the transition towards a market economy, the fertility rates across the region have plunged precipitously, with some now competing for the distinction of being the lowest in the world. Using the proximate determinants framework, this paper will examine the fertility decline across this unique set of countries. Changes to each of the four primary proximate determinants – percent married, contraception, abortion, and breastfeeding – will be analyzed to determine their relative impact on fertility trends. In addition to these proximate determinants, changes at the macroeconomic and societal level will also be examined for their impact on fertility. Data to examine fertility declines in the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe will be drawn from vital statistics, population censuses, and the various demographic and health surveys that have been conducted across the region.