Transformation of First Marriage Behavior of Japanese Female Cohorts: Estimation and Projection of Lifetime Measure via Empirically Adjusted Coale-McNeil Model

Ryuichi Kaneko, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Japan

In this study historical development of first marriage behavior in Japan in terms of lifetime measures for female birth cohorts is reconstructed to obtain better understanding of current situation of the rapidly transforming marriage. The measures include timing indices (mean, mode, median, and sd of age at first marriage), and eventual occurrence levels (proportion ever-married and never-married at age 50). Two preliminary arrangements are made; empirical adjustment of the Coale-McNeil model, and estimation of annual number of first marriage in postwar period. Then trends of the lifetime measures over cohorts born in 1935-1970 are estimated. Interesting changing patterns in first marriage behavior relevant to the recent nuptiality and fertility decline are found. The change was initiated with delaying marriage by cohort of 1952, followed by diffusion of never-marrying in cohorts after 1959. Then the timing shift is gradually ending in cohorts after 1965. Causes, implications, and prospects are briefly discussed.