Hindu-Muslim Differentials in Fertility: A Visit to Minority Hypothesis

Aparajita Chatterjee, International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS)
Ram B. Bhagat, International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS)
Tarun K. Roy, International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS)

Insecurity of minority groups is having varying effects on fertility. It may emerge due to marginalization of those relatively smaller groups in developmental process and/or for the sheer sense of weakness in demographic strength. Based on the experience of minority groups of the United States, Goldscheier and Uhlenberg (1969) argued that if the differences in social characteristics of the minority and the majority are eliminated, discrepancies in fertility and fertility behaviour are expected to be nullified. Even after standardizing the effects of socio-economic variations, if the differentials persist, it is because of the very perception of insecurity associated purely with minority status. Even when the desire for accumulation of minority group is not an integral part of social situation, members of this group can be concerned with group preservation and demographic strength, as postulated by the propounders of this hypothesis. But it is still unclear whether the political and social instability plays a considerable role to produce more or less children even when the developmental indices for both the majority and minority are equal. Politicization of Hindu-Muslim fertility differences in Indian context is a fertile ground of research. It is an undisputed finding that fertility differentials among Muslims are as significant as among Hindus in Kerala as in Uttar Pradesh. That is, Muslims of Kerala and Uttar Pradesh differ in the same way as Hindus do in fertility aspects. But the query arises here is that whether the gap in fertility between these two religious groups widens due to political and social security. If yes, then is it because of the subtle sense of minority status or for desire of accumulation due to high sense of religiosity or for relative underdevelopment of the Muslims? Qualitative evidences in this regard are as helpful as multivariate statistical juggleries. This paper therefore attempts to justify whether the western concept of minority group fertility behaviour can fit into Indian backdrop with regard to Hindu-Muslim fertility gap. Based on the theoretical background and available literature, we have hypothesized that greater the political insecurity over a good span of time, higher would be the Hindu-Muslim fertility differential. Riot is considered as a proxy indicator of political and social insecurity and a catalytic agent of reproduction among the minority group. Source of data for the present study is National Family and Health Survey II (1998-1999). Analysis of data contains simple bivariate tabulations along with multivariate regression models, where children ever born, use of contraception and fertility preference are functioning as dependent variables. It is furthermore hypothesized that the degree of difference in fertility of these two groups would be more prominent in urban areas as cities and towns are always the epicenters of riot outbursts. As a fundamental step to begin the analysis, we have first scrutinized the history of riots in different states of India since 1713. According to the incidence of unrest in pre and post independence period, we have selected eight states. Kerala and Tamilnadu are the least affected areas in this regard followed by West Bengal, Gujarat and Bihar, which belong to the middle category with a frequency of 10 to 15 riots in the past. The two most riot hit states considered in our study are Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra where the frequency is nearly 30 in the past. In addition, Madhya Pradesh is incorporated in the analysis because of higher contraceptive use among Muslims over Hindus. Results depict that in all the states mentioned above, Muslims are having significantly higher fertility over Hindus even after standardizing relevant demographic and socioeconomic variables. This finding is no way new. To probe further, we have introduced interaction terms of state and religion and the outcome is consistent with our hypothesis of political and social insecurity of minority status group. Fertility disparity (in terms of mean children ever born) in rural West Bengal-a state for more riots in the past, is significantly higher than rural Kerala- a state which is least affected by riots. While no other states are portraying any remarkable difference in comparison with Kerala. West Bengal and Kerala are the two major states in India where Muslim concentration is relatively higher in rural than the urban areas. It is likely that higher minority proportion in rural parts, would lead to stronger diffusion and repercussion of riots. Thus, the evidence suggests that even when the developmental factors are controlled, significantly higher Hindu- Muslim fertility difference in rural West Bengal is likely to the product of minority status of the latter. Similar to rural West Bengal, remarkable difference is also found in the urban Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal (at 1 % level of significance), compared to urban Kerala. While the Hindu-Muslim differentials in fertility are complex phenomena mediated through personal, family and regional factors in India, the statistical analysis indicates to the fact that in states where Hindu-Muslim riots are common, higher Muslim reproduction especially in the urban areas is the outcome of their insecurity resulting out of their small numerical size. Goldscheier C and Uhlenberg R Peter (1969) ‘Minority group status and fertility’, The American Journal of Sociology, vol-74 (4), January, pp-361-372. Engineer A (2002) ‘Riots scenario in 2001’ Economic and Political Weekly, January pp-18-24.