A Spatial Microsimulation Model for Rural Ireland—Evidence from the 2002 Irish Census of Population

Emily Wiemers, Rural Economy Research Centre, Ireland
Dimitris Ballas, University of Leeds
Graham Clarke, University of Leeds

Microsimulation attempts to describe economic and social events by modeling the behavior of individual agents. Spatial microsimulation models contain geographic information and allow for a regional or local approach to policy analysis. Teagasc and the University of Leeds have developed the Simulation Model for the Irish Local Economy (SMILE), a static and dynamic spatial microsimulation model for the rural economy in Ireland. The model generates a synthetic spatially referenced population for the Irish Republic at small area level and projects the population from 1996 to 2002. The SMILE population projections for 2002 are compared to provisional results from the 2002 Irish Census of Population. Differences between SMILE projections and census results at county level are highlighted. The model is being developed to include a dynamic labor force model and a model of spatial relationships between towns and their hinterlands.