Did Welfare Reform Increase Abortion?

Thedore Joyce, City University of New York at Baruch and National Bureau of Economic Research
Robert Kaestner, University of Illinois at Chicago
Sanders Korenman, City University of New York

In order to assess the effects of national welfare reform on abortion, we collected micro data on abortion from at least 21 states. These data allow us to compare abortion rates in the periods prior to and following welfare reform among women at high-risk and at low-risk of welfare receipt. In the states for which we have data, abortion rates among some “high-risk” groups (such as less-educated, single, black women) have increase by 50 percent or more in the period following welfare reform. There was little change in abortion rates for “low-risk” (i.e., more advantaged) groups such as married women and women with a college education. Although these results are preliminary and we will be adding data, the evidence we have to date suggests that national welfare reform may have been associated with substantial increases in abortion rates.