A Counterfactual Approach to the Black-White Differential in U.S. Marital Trends: The Effect of a “Total Institution”

Jennifer Hickes Lundquist, University of Pennsylvania

While “retreat from marriage” rates have been on the rise for all Americans, social scientists have noted an increasing divergence in family patterns between African Americans and Caucasian Americans, with the former experiencing markedly higher divorce, nonmarital childbearing and never-marrying rates. Explanations generally focus on one of three theories ranging from economic class and race stratification, historic and present cultural differences, and the skewed gender ratio in the African-American marriage market. My research poses a new, counterfactual approach to the race-family formation question. I examine what happens to marriage trends for blacks and whites when they are removed from larger society and placed in a structural context that minimizes racial and economic discrimination. Specifically, I examine nuptial patterns among the races within the US Military, a total institution in the Goffman sense, which serves as a near natural control for many of the arguments presented in the literature on the retreat from marriage.