Young Mothers, Only Children: An Analysis of Lowest-Low Fertility in Ukraine

Brienna Perelli, University of Michigan

The phenomenon of lowest-low fertility, defined as a Total Fertility Rate below 1.3, is now emerging throughout Europe. Many arguments explaining this phenomenon assume that much of lowest-low fertility is due to postponement of first births, as well as rational responses to economic uncertainty and gender inequality. This investigation challenges these explanations with the case of Ukraine, which in 2000 had a TFR of 1.1. Although Ukraine has undergone enormous political and economic transformations in the past decade, it has maintained a young age pattern of fertility and nearly universal childbearing. Using official statistics, the Ukrainian Reproductive Health Survey, and qualitative data, this study analyzes these trends and the reasons underlying childbearing decisions. In combination, these analyses provide evidence that there is more than one pathway to lowest-low fertility.