HIV/AIDS Effects on AIDS Orphans in Tanzania

El Daw Suliman, Johns Hopkins University

This paper has three objectives: 1) to estimate the numbers of Tanzanian orphans; 2) to review the data on human capital attainments by Tanzanian orphans and; 3) to predict the likely impact of AIDS orphanhood on the Tanzanian labor market. Our estimates show that in year 2000 there is an estimated 750,000 to 1 million orphans in Tanzania (comprise 8-11% of children under 15). Orphans in Tanzania have lower school participation rates, higher participation in paid work as compared to non-orphans. Orphans are significantly more likely to do work only or do work while attending school. Results from a random effects logistic model show that the strongest determinants of current school attendance are the schooling of the household head and the asset index of the household. Orphanhood independently raises the odds of child labor and raises the odds of dropping out of school.