Assessing the Potential for Spread of HIV/AIDS in China

Giovanna Merli, University of Wisconsin at Madison
Bo Wang, University of Wisconsin at Madison
Sara Hertog, University of Wisconsin at Madison

Concerns about the unfolding of an HIV epidemic in China are based on a characterization of the future course of the epidemic which relies on an UNAIDS model highly sensitive to the specifications given and not responsive to the prevalent regime of sexual relations. In this paper, we will show the sensitivity of results to changes in model assumptions. In particular, we will rely on results of simulations that produce different time trends of the epidemics using various regimes of sexual behavior and observe the trajectory of the rate of HIV increase they induce. After comparing results for China with these alternative trajectories, we will fit to Chinese data a curve of the time trend of the epidemic which will resemble that yielded by simulations that rely on a sexual relations regime corresponding to that empirically observed from recently collected data on sexual behavior in China.