The Southern Region Leading the Way! Regional Fertility Trends in Mozambique

Carlos Arnaldo, Universidade Eduardo Mondlane

Fertility declines have recently been documented for several countries in sub-Saharan Africa. However, little is known about fertility trends in Mozambique. This article attempts to fill the gap in Mozambique's demography by assessing the nature and magnitude of fertility decline, using the 1980 and 1997 censuses and the 1997 DHS. The TFR in Mozambique fell from 7.1 births per woman in 1980 to 6.1 births per woman in 1997, with marked differences between the three major regions. TFRs for 1980 and 1997 by region are 6.7 and 6.4 for Northern Region; 7.9 and 6.7 for Central Region; and 6.2 and 5.1 for Southern Region. These apparent declines are, however, refuted by both DHS birth history and census reconstructed birth history analyses, which show a fertility decline only in Southern Region. Contributing factors to these trends, including regional differences, are sought by looking at proximate determinants of fertility.