Does Frailty Always Mean Short Longevity?

Anatoli I. Michalski, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
Kenneth G. Manton, Duke University
Anatoli Yashin, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research

At advanced ages prevalence of disability in women is higher than in men. This supports a hypothesis that frailty may be associated with high longevity. Public use analytic data file of NLTCS conducted in 1982, 1984, 1989, 1994 was used to test the disability-longevity relationship. The disability was defined as impossibility to perform without special equipment or personal help at least one of nine predefined activities: eating, getting in/out of bed, getting in/out of chairs, walking around inside, going outside, dressing, bathing, using toilet, urination. At age 90+ men reported as disabled had higher chances to survive than nondisabled. The difference in life expectancy estimates is 2.3 years (p-value < 0.01). Mortality estimates demonstrate that in the age group 65-69 years disabled people have higher risk of death than nondisabled. After age 90 years it becomes opposite in men. In women this change likely takes place in more advanced ages.