Understanding Cohort Differences in the Expected Retirement Income of Future Retirees

Barbara A. Butrica, Urban Institute
Howard Iams, U.S. Social Security Administration (SSA)
Karen E. Smith, Urban Institute

We use the Social Security Administration’s Modeling Income in the Near Term (MINT3) data system to compare projections of retirement income and measures of economic well-being for retirees in the baby boom cohort with outcomes for earlier birth cohorts. We find that most retirees in the baby boom cohort will have higher incomes and wealth than retirees in earlier birth cohorts. However, several population subgroups are expected to be proportionally worse off in the baby boom cohort – including those with multiple marriages, those without high school degrees, certain groups of working women, and those delaying the start of Social Security benefits. Our analysis identifies differences across birth cohorts in educational attainment, marriage patterns, earnings and work histories, and pension receipt that may contribute to these findings.