Potential HIV/AIDS Trajectories in India

Puja Jawahar, University of Maryland

At present, the number of HIV/AIDS cases in India is second only to South Africa. There is tremendous uncertainty about how this epidemic will play out in the Indian Subcontinent; for instance, will it assume similar proportions as in South Africa? Both countries share certain socio-economic factors like migration and development patterns that facilitate the spread of the virus. Using a modified version of a model developed at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), I simulate HIV/AIDS epidemics of various strengths in India along with possible policy measures to limit their spread. The paper attempts to make recommendations about the appropriate policy response for a country like India, which is in the initial stages of the epidemic. It suggests that medication alone is, at best, an incomplete solution in controlling the spread of the epidemic. Behavioral change involves, among other things, increasing awareness and incorporating policies that stress prevention rather than cure. Given the importance of behavioral change in addressing the problem, I argue that a combination of medication and behavioral policies would be a more effective response.