Disability Transition Risk: Estimates from Russian Panel Data with Modifications for Kazakhstan

Charles Becker, University of Colorado at Boulder
Irina Merkuryeva, St. Petersburg State University

This paper provides estimates of the risk of disability, and of the probability of moving from one disability risk category to another, using data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS). Russian and Kazakhstani data enable us to distinguish three states: not disabled, partially disabled, and severely disabled. For a healthy adult, the annual risk of becoming disabled is approximately 1%, and the expected duration of disability (independent of disability severity) is slightly less than 5 years. We also find that disability risk is inversely related to regular employment and good health status and positively related to age. Smoking, alcohol consumption, and gender appear to matter little. Coupled with virtually identical recovery rates from moderate and severe disability, it appears that medical recognition of disability still has a strong "social" (non-health) component.