Incorporating Demographics into Agent-Based Models of Landcover Change

Tom P. Evans, Indiana University
Hugh Kelley, Indiana University
Leah K. VanWey, Indiana University

This paper presents an agent-based model of landcover change for south-central Indiana. This area has experienced a slight but detectable reforestation since the early 1900’s. The model presented here simulates the decisions of individual agents, interactions between agents and the impact of the agent-decision making on aggregate or macro-scale outcomes, particularly deforestation and reforestation. Our goal is to identify factors that contribute to the process of reforestation in south-central Indiana. We explore how household structure might affect landuse/landcover change decisions in the context of parcel characteristics including topography, soils and exogenous factors such as wage labor rates. Spatial metrics are used to characterize parcel-level landcover composition and pattern at each time point. We demonstrate how modeling activities can be used to inform subsequent data collection and analysis to explore theories of landcover change.