Popular Perceptions of Emerging Influences on Mortality and Longevity: Statistical Savvy or Befuddled Deduction?

Sajeda Amin, Population Council
Alaka Malwade Basu, Cornell University

While there is a slowly growing literature on the new environmental and pathological threats to human survival and longevity, much less is known about how these threats are perceived in the popular imagination. During fieldwork in rural Bangladesh and the state of West Bengal in India on the changing costs of and motivations for reproduction, we included some questions on perceptions of changing mortality. We found that child mortality levels were perceived to have fallen drastically in recent times, but for the middle-aged and the old the past was seen as a better time in terms of health and survival. The decline in adult health is attributed to environmental decline and lifestyle changes associated with modernization. The paper explores the objective validity and subjective reasons for this unexpected world-view.