Orphans and "Grandorphans'' in Sub Saharan Africa: The Consequences of Dependent Mortality

James H. Jones, University of Washington
Martina Morris, University of Washington

In the absence of extended family able to provide foster care, children orphaned by AIDS are at risk of negative developmental outcomes. Under a generalized epidemic, the family structure which can support orphans is strained. Furthermore, because HIV can be transmitted sexually, the infection of one parent is frequently followed by the infection of the second, producing mortality correlations within households. We present a stylized demographic model incorporating parental AIDS mortality correlations, which allows us to explore the effects of correlated mortality on the structure of the orphaned pool of children. Not surprisingly, within-household correlations increase the fraction of double orphans, however, they also induce structural changes on households across generations that have profound implications on the care of subsequent generations of potential orphans. Children born into new households formed by double-orphans lack grandparents, making them vulnerable to abandonment should their parents contract HIV.