Of Marriages and Mortgages: Divergent Trends in Ownership and Partnership in Gävle, Sweden, 1975-1990

Nathanael Lauster, Brown University
Lars-Erik Borgegard, Uppsala University
Urban Fransson, Uppsala University

Recent evidence from applying a life course perspective to the study of housing suggests that family formation behavior strongly influences choice of tenure in Western countries. Married couples have been found far more likely to move into home ownership than singles and, when studied, more likely than cohabitants as well. Yet changes in family formation behavior are rapidly occurring as a result of what demographers commonly call the second demographic transition. In particular, more adults are remaining single or cohabiting in non-marital relationships for longer periods of time, and choosing to delay or forego marriage altogether. At the same time, the proportion of the population in the owner-occupied tenure category has risen in many countries. In this paper we explore the divergent trends of declining marriage and rising ownership in Gävle, Sweden, from 1975 to 1990. Sweden is a particularly good place to study changes in partnership behavior. Demographic trends indicate that Swedes have traveled the furthest of any European country through the second demographic transition, at least along the dimensions of cohabitation and delay of marriage. At the same time, Sweden proves of particular interest in the study of tenure choice. Swedes commonly choose between the rental market, the owner-occupied market, and a third, cooperative semi-owner market. Until recently, the Swedish state has generally pursued a tenure-neutral housing policy, attempting to keep the expenses relating to each tenure type roughly equivalent. However, survey evidence indicates that the Swedish population continues to place tenure choices in a hierarchy with owner-occupation at the top and rental at the bottom. Applying a rational choice perspective, marriage may affect both the preference for ownership and the resources available to purchase a home or cooperative. We model both preferences and resources as factors in tenure transitions. Changes in resources and access may have increasingly allowed singles to move into home ownership without the benefit of an extra income. Alternatively, changes in preferences may have moved increasing proportions of single and cohabiting couples into ownership and cooperative tenure relative to married couples. Implications of the divergence between 1975 and 1990 are explored for present and future trends in tenure in Sweden and elsewhere. Micro-level census data is available for the Swedish municipality of Gävle, measured at 5-year intervals between 1975 and 1990. The municipality of Gävle contains a relatively representative one percent of the Swedish population, with a slightly higher proportion of rental housing than in the rest of Sweden but no other large differences. Cross-sectionally, each census year provides useful descriptive data about the population. Moreover, individuals can be linked between census years, allowing the creation of a longitudinal data set containing information about individual ‘life careers’. Since we are focused on family formation, we narrow our study to the 18-44 year old population of Gävle. We follow single Swedes in the rental category at the beginning of each five year period to their family trajectory (single, cohabiting, married) and tenure (rental, cooperative, owner, or migrate) at the end of the five year period. Controlling for ethnicity, age, and presence of children, we estimate the preference and resource effects of entry into partnerships on tenure transitions. We find important effects for both partner-related resources and partner-related preferences which vary by period studied. By studying the micro-level relationships between family formation and tenure choice in the town of Gävle, we hope to be able to clarify the ways in which changing partnership careers are likely to affect housing careers. Implications of the divergence between 1975 and 1990 are explored for present and future trends in tenure in Sweden and elsewhere.