Long-Run Effects of Birth Rates Changes on Welfare Participation

Amy G. Cox, RAND
Jacob A. Klerman, RAND

Although welfare caseloads are usually analyzed in terms of the economy and public policy, recent changes in birth rates may also be relevant. This study estimates the effect of recent declines in childbearing on recent declines in the AFDC/TANF caseload by treating childbearing as a proximate determinant of welfare participation. Birthrates can have both short- and long-term impacts on the caseload, and we model changes to capture entering and exiting participants. This paper 1) Estimates the impact of first birth timing on the duration of AFDC/TANF use, including variations among women; and 2) Estimates the impact of changes in the birth rate on changes in the caseload beyond available birth rate data by synthetically aging recent cohorts of women. Data come from the PSID, the National Vital Statistics System, and the California Medi-Cal Eligibility Data System. Results will illustrate how recent changes in childbearing rates relate to the welfare caseload.