The End of Declining Mortality: An Example from Southern Zambia

Samuel J. Clark, University of Colorado at Boulder and University of the Witwatersrand

In stark contrast to prevailing trends during most of the twentieth century, mortality conditions in large parts of Africa are worsening. This is likely the result of the combined effects of structural problems and a worsening epidemiological profile. In particular HIV/AIDS is taking large numbers of lives and will continue to do so for some time. This work utilizes 40 years of vital statistics information collected from a rural population in Southern Zambia to examine sex and age-specific trends in mortality and fertility from 1957 through 1995. Coincident increases in young-adult mortality and decreases in fertility may be evidence that HIV/AIDS was already having a substantial impact on this population during the late 1990s. Because these data describe only birth and death, more definitive analysis is not possible, and rigorous investigation into the structural changes giving context to the impacts of HIV is out of the question.