Fertility Transition in Nepal: Level, Trends and Determinants

Tika R. Aryal, Banaras Hindu University
K.N.S. Yadava, Banaras Hindu University
Bhakti R. Aryal, Banaras Hindu University

The aim of this paper is to study the fertility transition in Nepal. The level and trend in fertility has been studied through parity progression ratio and through Gompertz curve. Unwanted fertility has also been studied through parity progression-based technique. Determinants of fertility according to a number of variables have been investigated by Bongaarts model. Bongaarts and Feneey (B-F) procedure and parity progression-based techniques have been used to check the tempo effects in fertility schedules. B-F model has also been modified by taking smoothed annual change in mean age at childbearing over time. Further annual change in mean age at childbearing has also been adjusted. The data for this study are taken from the Nepal Family Health Survey (NFHS), 1996. The NFHS data are analyzed according to some marriage cohort and periods to obtain the parity progression ratio and hence to estimate the fertility rate by using different techniques. Marriage cohorts of 1962-64, 1967-69, 1972-74 and 1977-79 are taken. The females of 1962-64 and 1967-69 marriage cohorts are assumed to have experienced their completed fertility size. For the marriage cohort 1977-79 who completed eighteen years of marriage duration till the survey date 1996 there is no harm to compare the parity progression ratios up to 3-4 parities of this cohort with the marriage cohorts 1962-64, 1967-69 and 1972-74. Similarly, the periods of 1989 to 1996 are taken to see the trends in period parity progression ratios as females of age 15-42 years for 1989, 15-43 years for 1990 and similarly for 15-49 years for 1996 may have had similar fertility performance i.e. females after the age of 42 have few births. A declined trend in TFR was found by using both the techniques i.e. cohort parity progression ratio (from 6.7 for the marriage cohort 1962-64 to 4.5 for the marriage cohort 1977-79) and period parity progression ratio (PPPR) (from 5.2 in 1989 to 4.0 in 1995). Gompertz curve also provided the value of TFR 5.4 for 1989 and 3.9 for 1995, consistent with the estimates found by PPPR. An estimate of unwanted TFR was found 1.3 whereas wanted TFR was 3.0 births per woman during the period of three years preceding the survey date i.e. in 1993-96 and TFR was 4.3 births per woman by PPR. A low estimate of unwanted births was found among educated and urban women and a strong negative relationship was observed between wanted fertility and education. A high estimate of unwanted births was found among rural, uneducated and mountain’s women, which may perhaps be due to unmet need and low use effectiveness of contraception, and lack of awareness. By including the new indices of Ci (lactational infecundability) and Ca (abortions), Bongaarts model produced a TFR equal to 4.7, which is close to the value of 4.6 observed in NFHS 1996. It was found that the decline in TFR is mainly caused by the increasing contraception in recent times. The lactational infecundability variable also reduces fertility by about 3 and 2 births among the rural and urban women respectively. Contraceptive variable contributed a higher effect in Tarai, but lactational infecundability appears to have a little effect on fertility. It is hoped that future reduction in fertility is largely depends on contraception and lactational infecundability. B-F formula and parity progression-based technique yielded a consistent tempo free period TFR. A modified form of B-F formula was found suitable to adjust the period fertility, especially when fertility is subject to a fluctuating tempo effects. It was found that the tempo effect amounted to 0.4 births per woman (tempo free TFR 5.1- with tempo TFR 4.7) in 1991 whereas it was lower 0.3 birth per woman (tempo free TFR 4.5 - with tempo TFR 4.2) in 1994. . It was also found that women are delaying childbearing, which implies that observed fertility is lower than it would have been without tempo changes. The period fertility was found declining somewhat a slow rate as it declined from about 5 births in 1989 to about 4 births in 1995.