Coming to Stay: An Analysis of the U.S. Census Question on Year of Arrival

Douglas S. Massey, University of Pennsylvania
Ilana Redstone, University of Pennsylvania

This paper uses New Immigrant Survey Pilot data to compare immigrants’ answers to the census question on year of arrival with answers to questions asking about dates and durations of first and last U.S. trips, total number of trips, and total amount of U.S. experience. We find that the census procedure for estimating immigrant experience is inaccurate in approximately half the cases, underestimation is more likely than overestimation, and the size of the error averages just under four years. The likelihood and size of the error are determined by when the first trip was taken and the number of trips between then and the survey date. The erroneous estimation of U.S. experience by the census question on year of arrival yields earnings-experience elasticities that are biased upward. The bias appears to vary across regions, rendering virtually any comparative analysis of immigrant assimilation based on U.S. census data impossible to interpret.