Changes in the Timing of Fertility in Spain: The Impact of Education and Employment

Alicia Adsera, University of Illinois at Chicago

Fewer places in Europe have witnessed more dramatic changes in women's education, women's employment and fertility rates than Spain during the last 30 years. Whereas, in the sample under study, 74% of those born between 1935-49 had either no education or only primary education and only 1.9% had a four-year college degree, those percentages stood at 17.5% and 12.3% respectively for those born in 1964-68. Today, compulsory education extends till 16 years of age and women represent more than half of all tertiary enrollment. Harsh economic conditions have contributed further to the need to acquire skills. In 1998, Italy and Spain had the highest proportion in the OECD of 25-29 year-old women studying, and not in the labor force (OECD 2001). In Southern Europe, high unemployment rates and unstable contractual arrangements for young workers entailed a negative income effect stemming from a lower expected income not only for women who were in the labor market but, critically, for young men also. The employment insecurity of young men delayed marriage and childbearing even for women outside of the labor force (Ahn and Mira 2001). Of course, other institutional characteristics of those countries -absence of part-time schemes, dual markets, moderate maternity benefits- intensified the depressing effect of unemployment (Adsera 2000). In 1995, while unemployment for women 25 to 34 was around 6% in the US, New Zealand, Australia or Japan, it averaged 11% in Europe and it reached 20% and 34% in Italy and Spain respectively. As a result childbearing has progressively been postponed in Spain and total fertility rates have decreased from 2.8 in 1975 to 1.15 in 1997. The percentage of women childless at age 30 has moved up from 9.6% among those born 1949-53 to 24.7% for the 1964-68 cohorts. Among those with a four-year college degree, similar percentages were 18.3% and 53% respectively. Fertility rates in Spain are, jointly with those in Italy, at the bottom of the distribution across developed countries. Previous studies on Spain show how the duality of the labour market may explain why women in Spain fall in two groups: those who do not withdraw from the labor force after childbirth and those who withdraw and do not re-enter after their children arrive at school-age (Adam 1996). On the one hand, women who have a permanent job do not risk it. On the other, re-entry may be difficult because of high unemployment and the instability of contracts. Overall the instability of the labor market triggers maternity postponement and lower fertility. In this paper, I study the effect of education and employment of both women and their spouses on both the number children born to a woman and on the timing of marriage and births. I use two Fertility Surveys of women aged 15 to 49 conducted in Spain in 1985 and 1998 that include a total of 8,782 and 7,749 interviews respectively. Those surveys follow the guidelines of the United Nations and provide retrospective information on marital and union history, pregnancies and childbirth as well as some demographic, social and family characteristics. By conducting a similar analysis in both surveys I can study whether the determinants of fertility have changed in Spain during the last two decades. The paper undertakes two types of analysis. First, I use an ordered probit to compare the number of births to women of different educational background and employment status across different birth cohorts. Among other things, I control for economic conditions in the region of residence, religious activity, individual and spouse's employment, number of siblings, sex of previous children and age of marriage. Preliminary results show that, particularly in the latter cohorts, the relation between education and number of births is U-shaped with women with the lowest levels of education having the highest number of children followed by those with a four-year college degree. A college degree from the husband reinforces this result and somewhat lowers the significance on the woman's coefficient. This indicates a positive income effect from a high-earning couple. Second, I use Cox proportional hazard models to estimate the effect of education on the timing of marriage and of the three first births. I undertake this analysis both for the whole sample, across birth cohorts as well as for those women who were childless at age 30 to see whether they ultimately have children or remain childless. Control variables are similar to those used in the first part of the paper. Preliminary results show that across cohorts, those born during the 1950's married earlier than the previous and past generations -a result probably related to changing global economic conditions over time. Women with higher education consistently marry the latest and postpone first birth the most. The relation between education and second and third births is, again, U-shaped. A woman's college degree significantly increases the hazard to a second birth. Highly educated women tend to time the two first births closer than women with only secondary education. A highly educated husband is a key determinant to a third birth. The result is robust to using either the total sample or that of women childless at 30, where results are even stronger. The type of employment of both the woman and her spouse should also be an important determinant in the timing of birth as noted above. 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