Why the Peruvian Total Fertility Rate Did Not Change in the 1990s?

Tania R. Vasquez, University of Texas at Austin

In the 1990s two of the DHS surveys realized in Peru (one at 1992 and the second at 1996), showed that the TFR remained unchanged, (Bongaarts, 2002:5). A TFR of 3,5 for the period of 1991-1992 and the same TFR of 3,5 for the period of 1993-1996 lead us to the question of what possible factors could explain this immovability. The question is more important yet given that in those years, the family planning programs were importantly promoted in Peruvian urban and rural areas. Different possibilities can be explored. There is a methodological issue to evaluate and most importantly, there is a possible change in the proximates of fertility that can be assessed using the DHS databases for both periods, in order to identify possible changing characteristics that in aggregate level could produce equilibration of changes with opposite directions or in different social groups and cohorts. At the methodological level changes in the questionnaires and differences between the samples taken could have an incidence on the apparently unchanged TFR. In relation to the questionnaires is known that there are some changes to be consider in the section 2 dedicated to reproduction for individual women (INEI/DHS 1992, INEI/DHS 1997). In relation to the samples taken, the other possible aspect to explore is whether the survey for both periods reached respondents of different characteristics, restricting the comparability between both surveys. Although a methodological issue could hardly be an important source of explanation to the question brought up for this paper, given the accuracy involved in the design and application of this survey, it is a necessary step to take in order to explore systematically some of the clearest possibilities. At the level of the work with the databases, we will focus on the proximates of fertility and explore the tendencies suggested for different social groups and cohorts, about the ideal family size desired. If there is a significant change about family size desired from survey to survey, maybe the actual practices related to the use of contraceptive methods or other issues related to the proximates have a hidden influence in the contrary direction. As other part of the work, we will describe the characteristics, failures and successes of the family planning programs applied in the nineties in Peru, trying to construct a context related to the topic, but also because some authors have suggested this issue as an important one for the case of Peru, suggesting that the quality of family planning services on contraceptive use in Peru, this means better services, are indeed associated with greater contraceptive use (Mensch, Arends-Kuenning and Jain 1994). This is a work in progress, and it is in its initial phases. However it will be concluded by the end of this year as a part of the work for seminar on Human Fertility. BONGAARTS, John. 2002. “The End of Fertility Transition in the Developing World”. Expert Group Meeting on Completing The Fertility Transition”. Population Division. Department of Economic and Social Affairs. United Nations Secretariat. INEI/DHS. 1992. Encuesta Demografica y de Salud Familiar 1991/1992. INEI/DHS.1997. Encuesta Demografica y de Salud Familiar 1996. MENSCH, Barbara, Mary Arends-Kuenning and Anrudh Jain.1994. “Assesing the Impact of the Services on Contraceptive Use in Peru: A Case Study Linking Situation Analysis Data to the DHS”. The Population Council. Working Papers. No. 67.