The Timing of the Fertility Transition in Sub-Saharan Africa

Michel Garenne, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)
Veronique Joseph

If demographic and health surveys have underlined declining fertility trends in many countries of sub-Saharan Africa, little is known on the precise timing and the speed of the fertility transition in the continent. This study attempts to fill this gap, by using an innovative approach to the analysis of DHS data and other relevant surveys. The method utilises fine tuning of fertility trends year by year, for urban and rural areas separately. The paper starts by a case study of the fertility transition in Kenya. The same method is later applied to 20 countries. Results indicate that in many countries, fertility started to decline in the late 1960’s and 1970’s in urban areas, and about 10 years later in rural areas, much earlier than usually thought. Placing a time frame at the onset of the fertility transition allows one to develop further analysis of key determinants of the fertility transition.