The Fertility Transition in Ethiopia: A Search for Explanations

Muluye S. Desta, University of Southampton
Ian D. Diamond, University of Southampton
Zoe Mathews, University of Southampton

Ethiopia, which has a very serious economic problem, is also one of the sub-Saharan African countries with challenging population problems being overwhelmed by the ever-growing numbers of people needing basic services. On the other hand, the first ever Demographic and Health Survey (ETDHS 2000) revealed that a unique fertility transition is taking place in Ethiopia. For instance, the fertility level of the capital city – Addis Ababa has reached below-replacement level, which is an uncommon phenomenon in the context of fertility transition in sub-Saharan Africa. Much as it is a surprise, it is also a challenge to researchers to provide possible explanations. Using data from ETDHS 2000 and employing time series, multinomial logistic and loglinear Poisson regression analyses, this paper, first assesses the timing of the fertility transition and proceeds to explore for possible explanations for the unique fertility transition that is taking place in the country.