The Demographic Window: Challenges and Opportunities

Jean Marie Robine, Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)
Karen SL. Cheung, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
Ed Tu, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
Yi Zeng, Duke University

In many developing countries, the rapid ageing of the population is viewed as an obstacle to the implementation of significant social policies. A commonly held view is that “faster is ageing, heavier is the burden to the society…" Although this is true, the forecasted population ageing in developing countries will remain modest for the next two or three decades compared with the level reached in developed countries. In many developing countries, ageing is accompanied by a substantial decrease in the dependency ratio (young and elderly to adult population) that first declines with the fall in fertility before later increasing with the ageing of the population. This modifies the age structure of the population in favour of young adults. The relatively low social burden, supported by the working-age adults for two or three more decades, creates a rare opportunity to implement social policies founding sustainable development, before an inescapable fast ageing.