U.S. Households Projection by Race Using Demographic Rates as Input

Yi Zeng, Duke University
Wang Zhenglian, Duke University

Classic headship-rate method is not linked to demographic rates, projects a few household types without size, and does not deal with other household members than heads. ProFamy new method uses demographic rates as input and forecasts much more detailed household types, sizes, and living arrangements for all members of population. Testing forecasts using ProFamy and observed U.S. demographic rates in 1990s shows the discrepancy between the forecasts and 2000 census observations are reasonably small, which validates the method. Using pooled data from CPS, NSFH, NSFG, and SIPP (total sample size of 394,791 individuals) for estimating trends of the demographic rates, 1990 census micro file, and ProFamy, we prepare projections of U.S. households from 1990 to 2050. Projections of educational guess and scenarios with assumptions of high divorce, low mortality, low fertility and combination are performed to analysis the possible impacts of changes in demographic rates on U.S. households of different race groups.