Rethinking Brazilian Fertility Decline

Ana Maria Goldani, University of California, Los Angeles

In an attempt to rethink explanations of Brazilian fertility change, I discuss two “demographic truths” which systematically appear and are widely disseminated for public consumption. The first truth, that fertility decline began in the mid-1960s and its future will be irreversible decline, homogenization and stability, is problematic since deliberate control has occurred since the beginning of the twentieth century and it varies widely by cohort, race and geographical region. Although the mid-1960s may be an important turning point towards a generalization and acceleration of the process of decline, it does not represent its onset. Also the complexity of factors and interactions from different regional experiences and trends do not support the hypothesis of homogenization and the irreversibility of fertility decline. Regarding the second “demographic truth”, that fertility decline is mostly explained by a series of “unanticipated results” of the action of institutional actors and “unintended consequences” of public policies, I argue that it lacks sufficient attention to history and takes a narrow view of what constitutes population policy. Rather, I find the “medicalization of social relations” to be the common thread that captures the complexity of the interactions between medicine, the family, the Brazilian state and fertility behavior. Through this complex interaction, a profile of a Brazilian population policy emerges that goes beyond contemporary neo-malthusian conceptions or measures aimed to control population growth. Finally, I suggest that the family and gender relations, as the primary environment where individuals make their reproductive decisions, play a central role in explaining past and future fertility trends.