China: Economic Development and Mortality Decline

Judith Banister, Javelin Investments
Xiaobo Zhang, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

This paper investigates the driving forces behind the trends and changes in mortality at different ages in China since the mid-1970s. The econometric results show that economic growth and increased per capita consumption are of key importance in reducing mortality in childhood and especially adulthood, and in raising overall life expectancy. Declining illiteracy is also significant for reducing child mortality and increasing expectation of life. The stock of health care personnel particularly affects child mortality. Fiscal decentralization and a declining share of government expenditure devoted to health and education in some places have tended to slow down adult and overall survival gains there. The authors emphasize that China’s current policy of promoting the economic development of poorer and disadvantaged areas is also good policy for reducing the higher mortality in these regions. This paper discusses other policies likely to be effective for further increasing survival chances in China today.