Educational Reversals and Fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa

Laurie DeRose, University of Maryland

In sub-Saharan Africa, primary school enrollment rates began declining in many areas in the 1980s. Although levels of development help determine the pace of fertility transition, low levels reached by economic reversals may provoke a different response than the same levels attained by economic progress. The first cohorts that are less educated than their predecessors are beginning their reproductive lives; therefore, this analysis considers the effect of declining primary school enrollment rates on adolescent fertility. I first demonstrate that at the province level, education trend matters net of education level as a determinant of adolescent fertility. Then I assess the whether the individual-level relationship between education and fertility differs in contexts of education decline from other contexts. Provinces experiencing education decline are likely to be those most severely affected by economic hardship, and therefore the effects associated with education decline are likely to describe crisis-led fertility transitions.