Forecasting the Components of Life Expectancy

Vladimir Canudas Romo, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Germany, and Population Research Centre, Netherlands.
James W. Vaupel, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
Francesco Lagona, Università Roma Tre

Introduction: The purpose of this paper is to forecast life expectancy by using a newly developed decomposition method. The decomposition method separates the change over time of life expectancy into two components. Based on past trends of these components a forecast of the life expectancy is calculated. Data and method: The first component of the decomposition corresponds to an average of the improvements in mortality over the examined period. The second component accounts for the average number of life-years gained per life saved. We apply the method to data from many countries covering the twentieth-century. Result: The patterns suggested by the component trends are used to forecast the future dynamics and life expectancy. The forecast includes probability intervals. The findings contribute to the understanding of the dynamics of the components involved in the change of life expectancy. It also contributes to the debate on future trends of life expectancy.

Presented in Session 105: Innovations in Population and Household Forecasting