Long Term Effects of Spanish Influenza on Mortality of Norwegian Cohorts Born around 1900

Svenn-Erik Mamelund, University of Oslo

By using APC-analysis on life-table data for Norway, the paper shows that cohorts of both sexes born around 1900 have experienced significantly higher mortality relative to “neighbour” cohorts. This finding contradicts a widely cited study by Horiuchi, who hypothesized that only males from belligerent countries who were adolescents during WWI exhibit this cohort effect. The search for an explanation in Norway, which was neutral, must clearly go beyond the direct (soldiers wounded physically and mentally) and indirect effects (shortage and rationing of food) of WWI on later life mortality. This paper hypothesises that Spanish Influenza 1918-1919 caused the debilitation, not only for males, but also for females. Large proportion of the cohorts considered (born 1893-1910) was struck, but only a small proportion died of it. The net effect on later life mortality is thus assumed to be that of debilitation.