Understanding TB and HIV at a District Level in Kenya

Brian Williams
Jennifer Sykes
Chris Dye

In much of East and southern Africa the epidemic of HIV has led to a dramatic resurgence in the rates of TB infection which has increased by up to ten times in some settings. Previous attempts to model the impact of HIV on TB and the implications for controlling the epidemic of TB have been done at a national level. However, there is substantial variation in the rates of both HIV and TB within countries and investigating the geographical spread and time course of both epidemics at a district level should provide important insights. We have developed models of HIV and TB and have applied these to TB data collected for each of 50 districts and HIV data collected for each of 20 districts in Kenya. We describe and explore the different epidemics in different places and use socio-economic and demographic data to explain the time trends.