What Will Happen to Brazilian Fertility?

Ana Maria Goldani, University of California, Los Angeles

I examine the prospects for continuing declines in Brazilian fertility and the forces that are likely to shape future fertility trends. I also consider the reasonableness and soundness of the assumptions about future fertility that the United Nations uses to estimate projections for Brazil. I then discuss what we know about trends and socio-economic differentials in Brazilian fertility, the evolution of its proximate determinants and how these affect the assumptions being made by the UN regarding future fertility trends. I also present the best guesses of Brazilian demographers about Brazil’s population future in the coming decades. Finally, I speculate about the forces that will shape Brazilian fertility in the future, by emphasizing the role of its demographic legacy and current behavior, the current sterilization law and public policies and the role of gender relations and public support.