Unemployment, Lay-Off, Poverty and its Demographic Consequents in Urban China

Zaisheng Zhang, Nankai University

Unemployment£¬Lay-off, Poverty and its Demographic Consequents in Urban China (Paper Abstract) Zaisheng Zhang Institute of population and development, Nankai University, Tianjin 300071, China Email: zhangzs@nankai.edu.cn In the past 20 years, the economic and political reform and opening policy makes China¡¯s economic increase quickly and get great progress in social development. However, along with this quick development, the problems, which induced by the social and economic transfer, are also very significant. The unemployment and lay-off problem become very serious and the situation reach the worst time from 1949. According to the statistic of China Statistic Bureau, from 1996 to 2000, the urban employee were reduced 48,07 million. The register unemployment rate was 3.5% in 2000; by estimate the real unemployment rate was about10-12% or more. In the future, the labor force will still grow in China, and the unemployment and lay-off scale will increase. Therefore, unemployment and lay-off induced poverty population in urban China increased quickly, and became the main part of the poverty. According to the statistic of China Civil Administration Bureau, by October 2001, China had 15,89 million persons should accept the lowest life insurance. As the standard of poverty is too low and some other reason, in some area, many poverty and marginal poverty population were not included. So, the real poverty population in urban China should be more exceed the statistic. By estimate, now there are about 20-40 million poverty population in urban China, it is about 7-10% of the urban non-agriculture residents, in it about 90% is the family member of unemployment and lay-off worker. The increase of unemployment, lay-off and poverty population not only means lay dormant social crisis, but also will induce lots of demographic consequence, and will affect the population development in China. The hypothesis of this paper is that the personal and family economic situation changes would have important affect on demographic changes, such as the changes of marriage and divorce rate, fertility rate, population migration and distribution, education, health and other demographic factors. This paper would use the China fifth census data and yearly statistical data, and other specific investigate data, which related unemployment lay-off and poverty in urban China. And would use correlation analysis method to analyse the correlation between unemployment, lay-off and poverty, and analysis the demographic characteristics of the unemployment, lay-off and poverty. Based on this, the paper would also use path analysis method to study how the poverty and other socioeconomic changes affect marriage, divorce, fertility, migration, education and other factors as demographic consequence, and the mechanism of these effects. By primary research, the basic results are: The scale of unemployment, lay-off and poverty population in urban China will still increase in the future; unemployment and lay-off are the main reason caused poverty; urban poverty combined relative and absolute poverty together, and also have enormous marginal poverty population; unemployment, lay-off and poverty caused divorce rate increased and many people put off marriage and birth, the marriage rate and fertility rate will keep low level or fall down in urban area, the migration rate and floating population will increase and crime rate will increase; by the same time, the health conditions of the poverty will get worse; the education chance of the child in these families will decreased, the population quality and their future career development will affected, and all these changes will induce profound demographic consequence.