Internal Migration of the Older Population in the United States: 2000

Wan He, U.S. Census Bureau
Jason P. Schachter, U.S. Census Bureau

Objective: This paper examines internal migration patterns of the U.S. population aged 65 and over. Using Census 2000 data, this paper will report the general mobility of the older population between states and regions, movements from inside and outside metropolitan areas, and movements between metropolitan areas. It will further explore the correlation between the older population’s migration patterns and selected demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. Given that the older population may have different reasons for moving, thus different migration patterns from the rest of the population, this paper will also investigate differentials between these two populations. Migration is selective of particular people and is strongly related to age. Those between the ages of 18 and 30 are most likely to move, while this likelihood steadily decreases as people get older. However, in the later stages of life, as people retire or move to be closer to families, mobility tends to increase somewhat. This study will provide comprehensive empirical information about older people’s mobility, expanding our understanding about who among older people move and do not move, as well as where they move. Census 2000 data offers us the unique opportunity to look at internal migration of the older population, combining highly detailed up-to-date geographic and demographic information. Data and Methods: This paper will be the first to use Census 2000 sample data to examine mobility patterns of the older population. Census 2000 data is unique in its ability to provide statistically reliable migration analysis of relatively small populations at detailed levels of geography. The selected demographic and socioeconomic variables are: - Age, the population aged 65 and over will be further disaggregated into various age groups, 65-74 (the young old), 74-84, and 85+ (the oldest old), to further examine variations among the older population, especially the oldest old; - Sex, to study the gender difference; - Marital status, to examine whether being married matters in older people’s decision to move and where they move; - Labor force status, to explore whether older people’s migration is mostly retirement related; (Census 2000 asked if the person had moved from the residence 5 years earlier/1995-Q.P15; it also asked whether the person last worked between 1995 and 2000, or in 1994 or earlier, Q. P26); - Nativity, to examine the role of international migration on net internal migration by state and region, and differences between natives and the foreign born; - Poverty and household income, to examine the differentials in mobility by income; - Race and Hispanic origin, to investigate the differentials among racial and ethnic groups; - Place of birth, to investigate return migration in the latter portions of life. The paper will provide tables, graphs, and state- and/or county-level maps. Some multivariate analysis using logistic regression will also be performed. Expected Findings: Data from the 2000 Current Population Survey (CPS) indicated that most older people do not move, that they are more likely than the total population to move to a different region, that about half of all their moves were within the same metropolitan areas, and that moving rates among different racial and ethnic groups vary. The CPS also revealed differences in migration patterns between the older population and the total population, most notably in net regional gains. The analysis from Census 2000 data is expected to find similar results, but may also provide interesting new findings, and will allow us to look at migration patterns below the regional level. Due to the small number of sampled people aged 65 and over, and the further smaller sample sizes when broken down by other characteristics, the CPS data were not able to provide reliable information on characteristics of the older people’s migration. Census 2000 data will reveal new findings on the correlation between older people’s migration and their demographic and socioeconomic characteristics.