Impact of Migration on Population Dynamics: Regional Demographic Scenarios in Indonesia

Salahudin S. Muhidin, Brown University

Recently, the new government of Indonesia started to implement the decentralization policy to replace a centralized development system. As a result, the government at the regional level (i.e. district) now has more autonomy and the rights to decide for any appropriate regional level policies. Regional autonomy may then positively influence economic development eventually exerting a significant impact on regional population distribution. This paper examines the likely impact of future scenarios of migration on population dynamics in the 2000-2030 periods. It starts with a construction of several scenarios demographic parameters, by considering several future socioeconomic political possibilities. Then it prepares population projections using the conventional uniregional projection, with and without migration. Followed by this, it produces the multiregional population projection and compares the results with the uniregional projection. Based on the quantitative results, the paper attempts to qualitatively examine possible impacts on families and some socioeconomic conditions in Indonesia.